Kane vs Salah - Assessing the best candidate for your FPL captain
Who is the best FPL captain for gameweek 12? 4-time top 1k and 5-time top 5k finisher Abdul Rehman uses stats, fixtures and the eye test to find the best Fantasy Premier League captain and differential captain for the upcoming gameweek.
Best Captain for Gameweek 12
Mohamed Salah (£13.1m) – Liverpool
Mohamed Salah has now gone nine games in a row with an attacking return and he has only gone one game without a goal or assist this season. While he hasn’t scored in his last two starts, ownership still suggests he is too dangerous not to captain right now.
The Liverpool forward has had 37 shots in the box (1st), 24 shots on target (1st), 13 clear-cut chances (1st) and an xG of 8.8.27 (1st). He has also created eight clear-cut goalscoring opportunities (1st) with an xA of 5.12 (1st). No player comes close to Salah this season in terms of underlying numbers or output.
Liverpool have a home game against Arsenal in gameweek 12. The Gunners have really improved defensively after their first three games of the season. They have an xGC of 16.0 (13th) over the season, but since gameweek four, their xGC is 8.3 (2nd).
However, this Liverpool team is very attacking and is putting up some impressive numbers. They have scored 31 goals (1st), managed 146 shots in the box (1st), 77 shots on target (1st) and boast an xG of 28.0 (1st).
They are by far the best team going forward and couple that with Salah’s record breaking form, and I really can’t see Arsenal causing Liverpool any problems here. The bookies also have Liverpool as the third favourites (35%) to score 2.5+ goals this gameweek.
Best Differential Captain for Gameweek 12
Harry Kane (£12.2m) – Tottenham Hotspur
Harry Kane has endured one of his worst starts to a season having scored just one goal and registered one assist from 10 appearances. There isn’t much statistical evidence to present in Kane’s favour this season, but with new manager Antonio Conte at the helm and the fact that Tottenham now embark on a great run of fixtures, he is too good a player to stay quiet for long.
Spurs start their good run with a home fixture to Leeds United in gameweek 12. The Whites have conceded 18 goals (16th), 105 Shots in the Box (15th) and have an xGC of 16.9 (15th). They have always been leaky due to their attacking style of play and this looks a game tailormade for Conte’s counter attacking style of football.
Spurs and Kane have been so poor lately that I really can’t see them getting any worse, and with the new manager and new system, they will surely only improve their output. We all know what Harry Kane is capable of and I wouldn’t be surprised if he replicated last season's form under Conte.
With this being Spurs’ first Premier League home fixture under Conte, they will desperate to win here and turn their season around. It may take a bit of time for them to get fully up to speed with the new manager's tactics, but any goals they score will likely come via Kane or teammate Son Heung-Min.
The England forward is the second favourite to score anytime (49%) for gameweek 12 according to the bookmakers and is only owned by 7.6% of managers. Seven goals and one assist during the international break will have certainly done his confidence the world of good!
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