Chelsea vs Tottenham: Can Spurs overcome Wembley hoodoo to beat Blues?

It’s an FA Cup semi-final tie that promises to have greater ramifications than just a place in the final of the domestic competition. Chelsea currently top the Premier League by four points after a minor wobble that has seen them lose two of their last four outings. Tottenham are their nearest competitors in the race for the title and, with Mauricio Pochettino’s side chomping at the bit, they could upset the odds at Wembley on Saturday. 

The last time these two met was at White Hart Lane, when Tottenham landed a 2-0 win to end Chelsea’s 13-match winning run. It is one of just three defeats in the 26 games since Blues boss Antonio Conte switched to a three-man defence, with Pochettino altering his tactics accordingly to ensure Spurs got the better of their London rivals. Jose Mourinho followed suit at the weekend to deploy a three-man defence and it paid dividends as Manchester United secured a 2-0 on Sunday and once more highlighted the weaknesses to Chelsea’s defence. 

Spurs capitalised excellently on the space between defender Cesar Azpilicueta and wing-back Victor Moses to put the Blues to the sword earlier in the season, with their two goals almost identical. Christian Eriksen received the ball on the right before crossing for Dele Alli at the back post to head past Thiabut Courtois on both occasions. While Conte will look to avoid this chink in Chelsea’s armour being exposed once more, it’s a concern that the Blues are susceptible to attacks of this manner. 

The league leaders, though, are boosted by Courtois' expected return between the sticks after he missed the 2-0 loss at United, yet even then Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight competitive outings. Stand in Begovic saved just two of United’s three shots on target in a loss to United – albeit, one of which was a heavily deflected Ander Herrera effort. Tottenham, meanwhile boast the fifth best conversion rate in the Premier League this season (11.8%) and would be confident of finding a way past the Blue, even with Courtois returning.  

On top of that, since Spurs last failed to score a goal in a competitive encounter – a 1-0 loss to Gent in the Europa League in mid February – they’ve netted 33 times in 10 fixtures, an average of 3.3 goals per game. Harry Kane has netted nine of those, despite sustaining an ankle injury in the opening exchanges of the 6-0 FA Cup win over Millwall, with his second half strike against Bournemouth at the weekend meaning he is one of only three players to score 20 or more league goals in a single season in Europe’s top five leagues across the last three campaigns, with the others being Lionel Messi and Alexandre Lacazette. 

That being said, Chelsea aren’t without their attacking threats. The defeat at United saw them fail to register a shot on target in a Premier League match for the first time since 2007 and Conte will demand a much-improved showing from his attackers against Tottenham. Eden Hazard, who is the Premier League’s highest rated player with a WhoScored rating of 7.86, endured a disappointing showing at United as he completed zero dribbles at Old Trafford, a rarity for the Belgian. To compound a miserable afternoon against United, Diego Costa was dispossessed more times (10) than any other player has been in a Premier League match this season and the duo – among others – need to buck up their ideas if Chelsea are to overcome Spurs. 

With Spurs boasting the best defence in the Premier League having shipped just 22 goals this season, Chelsea will have their work cut out if they are to progress to the final of the FA Cup. United showed just how vulnerable the Blues are at the back at the weekend and a way to overcome the west London outfit, which Spurs will undoubtedly strive to exploit at Wembley. Their recent form at the national stadium leaves a lot to be desired, of course, while Chelsea earned the bragging rights the last time these two met at Wembley with the Blues securing a 2-0 win over Spurs in the 2015 League Cup final, and the north London side have won just two of their last nine visits to Wembley compared to Chelsea's nine of their last 14, which also includes a 5-1 trouncing of Spurs at this stage of the 2012 FA Cup.

Spurs, however, have the means to get the better of their London rivals and secure back-to-back comptitive wins over Conte's side.