Stats show Greenwood is already outperforming Rashford at Man Utd
When Mason Greenwood received the ball back from Anthony Martial on the edge of the Aston Villa penalty area there was only one thing on the teenager’s mind: turn and shoot. Former Manchester United left-back Patrice Evra was later glowing in his assessement of the teenager on Sky Sports. "Every ball he touches is aggressive," he said. "He doesn't even think. He destroys you." That is exactly what he did against Villa on Thursday night. Greenwood took possession back from Martial, shifted the ball onto his, so-called weaker, right foot and drilled it straight past a helpless Pepe Reina.
It marked his ninth Premier League goal of the season, passing Marcus Rashford for the most goals scored in the competition by a United player before turning 19. Greenwood has remarkably scored more league goals than Liverpool striker Roberto Firmino (8). He doesn't turn 19 until October...
In many ways his rise is similar to Rashford's but in other ways it is completely different. Rashford got his big break at 18 by accident, as a late injury replacement for Anthony Martial in a Europa League game. Rashford took his opportunity, scoring twice on debut against FC Midtjylland. He would later also score on his debut in the Premier League, EFL Cup and Champions League, as well as netting on his first cap for England's U21 and senior sides.
Greenwood's emergence, meanwhile, has been by complete design under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. His performances for United's youth sides caused such a commotion among the first-team that some even attended their games just to see what all the fuss was about. He scored 30 goals in 29 appearances for United's Under-18, Under-19 and Under-21 teams last season and was rewarded on the last day of the season by becoming the youngest ever player at the club to start a Premier League game (17 years and 223 days old).
Greenwood is a bonafide superstar in the making. If this is just the start then how high is his ceiling? Some are now questioning whether United need to spend the huge sums quoted to sign Jadon Sancho, while former England manager Glenn Hoddle believes Rashford could soon find himself out of the team because of Greenwood's 'superior finishing'. Greenwood and Sancho are completely different players but perhaps there is something to learn when comparing Greenwood's breakthrough to Rashford's and his subsequent development.
Despite only making his United debut with three months of the 2015/16 campaign remaining, Rashford impressively finished that season as United's fourth top scorer in all competitions under Louis van Gaal (8 goals in 18 appearances). He converted a healthy proportion of his chances (22.2%) but the following campaign, his first full year and first with Jose Mourinho, was more of a struggle.
All 18 of Rashford's appearances the season before were starts, whereas that figure dropped to 58.8% in 2016/17. That is completely normal for a teenager and still represented 30 starts from 51 appearances, but Rashford only managed 10 goals in that time. His coversion rate dropped to just 12.3%. In other terms, Rashford required nearly double the amount of chances to find the back of the net in 2016/17 as he did in 2015/16.
An obvious caveat to this is that neither Van Gaal nor Mourinho promoted football that was conducive to free-flowing attacking football. Under Van Gaal it was constructed to be slow and patient and during Mourinho's three years there was literally no clear plan. During Rashford's breakthrough years he was also more effective, not necessarily as a goalscorer, but simply as someone that created panic, destablising defences with his speed and directness. Rashford was a wildcard factor for United. A risk taker. New on the scene, his first thought was to get the ball and run at goal as quickly as possible, without necessarily knowing the route. Dribbles per 90 increased from 1.7 in 2016/17 to 2.2 the following year.
That is notably different to what we are seeing from Greenwood this season. While Rashford was at his best picking up the ball in one-on-one situations 30 to 40 yards from goal, leaving defenders back-pedaling, Greenwood really comes alive in and around the box. That is when Greenwood uses his speed and directness, when he knows there is a path to goal. He only averages 1.2 dribbles per 90 in all competitions this season.
Solskjaer sanctioned the sale of Romelu Lukaku and farmed out Alexis Sanchez on loan last summer in order to free up game time for Greenwood this season. He remarkably now has 16 goals in all competitions. Only Wayne Rooney, Brian Kid and George Best have scored more (all 17) in a single season as teenagers for United. Greenwood has at least six games left this season to join, or even surpass, legendary company.
Solskjaer was criticised at the time but the youngster has fully justified his decision. Excluding substitute appearances, Greenwood is the fourth highest WhoScored rated player in the Premier League this season of those to have started at least five times (7.87). In April, Lukaku, now of Inter, labelled Greenwood the best young player at United.
Greenwood that boy coldddddd 💯 https://t.co/r8g5YWmfhY
— R.Lukaku Bolingoli9 (@RomeluLukaku9) April 18, 2020
What makes Greenwood even more of a rare talent is that he is almost as good with his right foot as he is with his stronger left. While that seems like a bare-minimum standard to expect from a professional footballer, it's unusual to come across players equally as confident using either foot. So far this season he has netted 12 times with his left and four with his right. He used to take penalties with his left but swapped over after missing one against City's Under-13s. That has even continued into the first-team, converting a spot-kick in the FA Cup win over Tranmere with his weaker foot in January.
There is an obvious likeness about Robin Van Persie in Greenwood in the way he carries the ball and combines power with precision when scoring, while Manchester City's own wonderkid, Phil Foden, believes his England youth level team-mate is already as good a finisher as Sergio Aguero - City's all-time record scorer. Greenwood's conversion rate in the league this season is 26.5%. Of the 108 players that have attempted at least 25 shots in the Premier League this season, only Jamie Vardy (30.6%) has a better conversion rate than the United starlet.
During Solskjaer's time as manager of United's reserves between 2008-11, the Norwegian coached Wayne Rooney how to shoot through people's legs, having mastered that technique during his own playing career. Greenwood has already scored a couple of those goals and it's clear to see Solskjaer's nose for goals rubbing off on the teen. Even after bulking up during lockdown, Greenwood doesn't look particularly imposing but he certainly has dynamite in his feet. His effort against Villa was his fourth in the league from outside the box, no player has more despite the fact it was only his eighth start of the campaign.
So what have the first four years of Rashford's career told us compared to Greenwood's breakout season? It's clear they are both on different paths in terms of the forwards they are. Rashford is more explosive with speed and his ability to go past defenders, while Greenwood is a killer in front of goal. This season's Greenwood is already better than anything we have seen from Rashford in terms of being clinical. If it comes down to Solskjaer picking a better goalscorer then Hoddle may be right.
What's interesting is that Greenwood has only had three clear-cut chances all season but still has 16 goals. According to Understat, his xG in the league - estimated goals according to quality of shooting positions - is only 2.99 in the Premier League. He is overperforming in front of goal by six. In other words, Greenwood should only have around three league goals from the shooting positions he has taken up but actually has nine.
You would expect there to come a point when Greenwood won't continue to smash them in from distance on a regular basis but the maturity he has shown in some of his other goals paints a really exciting future for the youngster. At 18 he is already using the positioning of opposition defenders to his advantage and the goalkeeper's disadvantage. The fact neither defender nor goalkeeper are completely convinced which foot Greenwood will take on the shot with makes him even more difficult to stop.
The pathway from United's academy to its first-team has been a clear one for decades but in Greenwood they have arguably unearthed their most exciting talent since the emergence of the Class of 92.
