Arsenal vs Chelsea: Wenger's midfield dilemma ahead of FA Cup final

The final game of the domestic season will be played out at Wembley on Saturday when Arsenal face off against Chelsea in the FA Cup final. It’s Arsenal’s third final in their last four years and they’ll be hoping to wrap up a disappointing domestic season with their third FA Cup in that time. For Chelsea, it’ll be a chance to win a first Premier League and FA Cup double since 2010 and for Antonio Conte to really end a successful campaign on a high. A London derby to the end the season couldn’t be more appealing to the neutral as Arsenal and Chelsea will battle it out for the trophy. 

That being said, Arsenal’s preparation for the encounter has been troubled to say the least. Arsene Wenger faces something of a crisis at the back, with Laurent Koscielny suspended, Gabriel Paulista injured and Shkodran Mustafi a huge doubt with a concussion. Indeed, Wenger is presented, not with a defensive headache, but a full grown migraine in Arsenal’s pursuit of domestic success once again. Considering the Frenchman has in recent weeks favoured a three-man defence, this crisis couldn’t have come at a worse time for Wenger. 

While it’s likely to the Gunners boss will stick with a three-man backline to counter Chelsea’s frontline, with Rob Holding and Nacho Monreal flanking Mustafi - should he recover in time - or the experienced Per Mertesacker, who made his return to first team action at the weekend, the issue here is how this will affect the club higher up the pitch. Wenger has a huge decision to make to his midfield now and who operates in the middle of the park, be it whether he wants to boost the defensive aspect of the side or to show that he is unafraid to attack Chelsea from the off. 

In either instance, Wenger’s most important decision will come on whether he starts Francis Coquelin or Aaron Ramsey alongside Granit Xhaka in the middle of the park at Wembley. The former would suggest the Arsenal boss is planning on sitting deeper to soak up pressure and ultimately hit Chelsea on the counter while the latter would show intent that he is going to look to hurt the Blues. Both approaches have their merits, of course. For all of his criticisms in an Arsenal shirt this season, Coquelin is still making more tackles per 90 (3.7) than any player for the north London side. 

The only downside to the French midfielder starting, however, is that it would be a show of weakness by Arsenal before the match has even kicked off. The Gunners have generally performed better without Coquelin starting than with him in the Premier League this season, noted in that Arsenal have an 81.3% win ratio when Coquelin does not feature from the off compared to 45.5% when he does in England's top tier. For a player of his calibre alongside Xhaka, the natural inclination would be for Arsenal to drop deeper, thus presenting Chelsea with the necessary space with which to maximise their attacking talents. 

Coquelin started the 3-1 loss at Stamford Bridge back in February and churned out a less than impressive display before his withdrawal for Olivier Giroud after 65 minutes. Arsenal’s performances with Coquelin and Xhaka starting in midfield also leaves little to the imagination, with the team winning only six of 14 matches the pair have started together this season. Not only does a midfield axis of Coquelin and Xhaka invite further pressure on the Arsenal goal, but leaves the club with one less attacking threat, which segways nicely in the argument for Ramsey’s inclusion. 

The advantage of playing the Wales international is that he offers attacking runs from deep, much to the benefit of the Arsenal forward line. In this regard, there’s an extra dimension added to the attack, which is a boost to Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez, the two forward players commonly used behind the striker in Wenger’s 3-4-2-1 formation. The duo have a license to roam across the attacking third in pursuit of possession and finding space between the lines to hurt opponents. When Coquelin starts, his and Xhaka’s reluctance to push forward damages Arsenal’s attack as there is nobody to fill the gap between the two banks of midfield when Ozil and Alexis pull wide. 

In Ramsey, though, Wenger has the ideal player to push into attack when Arsenal break forward, thus not only occupying the opposition holding midfielder, but adding another goalscoring threat. This then opens up the necessary space for Xhaka with which to utilise his vision and passing accuracy. A prime example of this was for Alexis’ opening goal in the recent 2-0 win over Sunderland, where Xhaka picked out Ozil with an inch-perfect pass before the German presented his Chilean teammate with a chance to tap into an empty net. With Xhaka averaging more accurate long balls per 90 (6.6) than any other Arsenal player, he thrives when space is created around him and Ramsey is the perfectly suited to partner the Swiss star. 

It’s no real shock, then, that since Arsenal’s switch to a three-man defence, they have won six of the seven games Ramsey and Xhaka have started together in the middle of the park, with the only blip in the record coming in the 2-0 loss at Tottenham late last month. As a means to pinning Chelsea back, Ramsey would be the better option for Wenger, but then this runs the risk of leaving Xhaka overrun with too much defensive work to do, which would seriously hinder Arsenal’s chances of lifting the FA Cup, particularly if Mustafi fails to recover from injury in time and Mertesacker starts as the central defender in the three-man backline. 

Either way, it’s a real selection issue for Wenger ahead of Saturday’s final and one he needs to get right if he is to see his side lift the FA Cup at Chelsea’s expense.