For the second time this season, Manchester United are presenting as one of the form teams in the Premier League. Four straight league wins has seen them rise back up into contention for a top six spot, while they’re also into the FA Cup fifth round. With Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s 25% takeover of the club now approved by the FA, all is well at Old Trafford, right?
Ask many Manchester United fans that question and you’ll be met with a puzzled look. They - and neutrals alike - can’t quite figure out what’s going on, as the form book - which reads W W W W W - simply does not match what’s happening on the pitch. The reality is that each United game currently ends with a significantly raised pulse, a bead of sweat on the forehead, a furrowed brow and a really important question: Is this team actually any good?
What a strange thing to ask of a team that is unbeaten in 2024 and on a five-game winning streak. They’ve picked up 13 of a possible 18 points across their last six matches, with only the three title contenders bettering that tally. They’ve scored 13 goals in that span, with Rasmus Hojlund hitting a rich vein of form that has wiped away any flop fears.
Yet the underlying numbers back up what the eyes are telling us: The Red Devils are playing a dicey, dicey game right now; this run of wins feels improbable and, therefore, unsustainable. Here’s a look at their recent Premier League wins, accompanied by the xG tallies:
Wolves (2.52) 3-4 (3.22) United
United (0.97) 3-0 (1.41) West Ham
Aston Villa (2.71) 1-2 (2.29) United
Luton (1.57) 1-2 (2.79) United
Single-game xG tallies should generally be treated with caution, but in this case they do feel like they match up to what we’re seeing on the pitch. The Wolves game was a bloodbath; West Ham consistently created - and missed - chances; Villa bombarded them and somehow only scored one; while Luton applied real pressure and hit the bar in the 94th minute.
Even more illuminating is the number of shots conceded in these games. Against Luton Town and West Ham it was 22, while Villa registered 23; for context, Sheffield United have averaged 17.4 shots conceded per game this season... you know, the Sheffield United who have conceded a record-high 65 goals from 25 games.
So, how is this happening? How are Manchester United posting borderline-relegation-level defensive numbers, yet winning every week?
The answer appears to lie in their lack of control of games. Among the Premier League’s current top six, the Red Devils are a true anachronism in that they do not seek to, or are simply not capable, of controlling games with the ball. There was a fair expectation that hiring a manager from Ajax might lead to that, but recently Erik Ten Hag dispensed with that idea: "I came here with my philosophy, based on possession, but I wanted to combine it with the DNA of Manchester United, the players and their characters."
This quote feels important when considering United’s performances. The attacking cast he’s working with - Marcus Rashford, Alejandro Garnacho, Bruno Fernandes and Hojlund - play with thrust and dynamism, not La Pausa. Casemiro and Scott McTominay are the same from midfield. There are only a handful of players in this United squad who conceivably match the “Ajax style” and of them, Lisandro Martinez and Luke Shaw have been plagued by injuries anyway.
So it’s a sea of chaos... but seemingly by design. Ten Hag has decided to lean into the chaotic, basketball gamestate and back his superior quality of players to come out on top more often than not. But that’s a high-wire strategy, creating much more level playing fields than Manchester United are used to, and it probably should have stung them against one of West Ham or Villa.
It’s highly likely that this sea of chaos will sweep United away again some time very soon; no team can come out the right side of these very fine margins this often, consecutively, as whenever they lose the ball, they’re completely out of position and therefore in severe danger.
Ten Hag will tell you it’s the right play, accentuating the strengths of a counter-attacking squad, but it’s a style that clearly borders on reckless at times. That’s not usually conducive to sustained success - which is likely why they’ve simmered into form twice, then dropped sharply afterwards, this season - but at the very least it creates plenty of entertainment for the neutrals.
