A statistical look at potential Harry Kane replacements Tottenham could target
As reports on Monday night circulated that Harry Kane had informed Tottenham he wished to leave the club the summer, rumours of his next destination began to gather momentum. If he were to remain in the Premier League, Manchester City would be the likeliest destination, but Manchester United and Chelsea have been linked with a move.
However, there is bad blood between Spurs and Chelsea off the pitch, not only in the fan rivalry, but also stemming from a boardroom level due to the Willian transfer saga back in 2013, where it seemed the north London side had won the race to land the Brazilian only for their west London counterparts to snatch the midfielder from under Spurs' nose at the 11th hour.
United are also believed to be focussing their efforts on signing Jadon Sancho from Borussia Dortmund this summer and having recently extended Edinson Cavani's contract, it leaves City as the only viable port of call for Kane. That said, Spurs are under no pressure to cash in on their star forward. Kane still has three years left to run on his current contract and it'll take a huge bid to convince Daniel Levy to sell.
The Spurs supremo will also look to the deals that took Coutinho to Barcelona and Neymar to PSG as a marker for any potential asking price. This'll ensure Levy is getting top dollar for the club's prized asset and help fund the rebuild that Spurs need this summer. Therein lies a further issue. City may hope to sign Kane as their new striker to ease the departure of Sergio Aguero, but in the process, they'd be providing Spurs with the money needed to strengthen elsewhere.
This could prove to be the main problem Spurs need to tackle this summer. Kane is one of nine players to register double figures for both goals (22) and assists (13) in Europe's top five leagues this season and there is a possibility he will finish top of the scoring and assist charts at the end of 2020/21, becoming the first player to achieve the feat in the Premier League era. Yet Kane's best season was wasted under Jose Mourinho and with a top-six finish the best they can hope for, supporters can't blame the 27-year-old for seeking a move to a side where trophies are a realistic seasonal goal.
Therefore, Spurs need to be in the market for a striker who can both score chances and create them for teammates, carrying out the duties of two players to great effect. For the purpose of the hunt for a Kane successor, we look at players to have scored in excess of 15 goals and provided at least five assists across Europe in 2020/21. The parameters in question also factor in a minimum of 2.9 shots per game, a conversion rate of at least 12.5% and an average of 0.7 key passes per game to accomodate Kane's ability to readily go for goal to good effect and provide for others.
Of course, this brings up the likes of Lionel Messi, Karim Benzema and Robert Lewandowski, three world class strikers who are unlikely to swap Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich for Tottenham, which means Spurs need to cast their net a little further afield. The north London side can also be considered out of the running for the elite youngsters on the continent, so Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe, two strikers who, statistically, fit the bill, are not taken into consideration.
With a maximum age of 25 of those realistic potential targets, we have narrowed down to four who fit the above parameters, ranging from the Bundesliga, to the Eredivisie and the Championship. We'll start with the two Eredivisie players to make the cut for reasons we will get to later.
At 22 years of age, Danilo impressed on the FC Twente frontline this season, hitting the back of the net 17 times for a side that finished 10th in the Eredivisie. In addition, the Brazilian provided five assists in 2020/21, so in total had a direct hand in 45.8% of their 48 league goals.
It was evidently a profitable loan spell for Danilo, who is contracted to Eredivisie champions Ajax until 2022. Whether his future lies there is another question altogether. Ajax are well stocked for strikers and they could look to cash in on Danilo rather than lose him on a free next summer and with averages of 2.9 shots and one key pass per game, coupled with a solid conversion rate of 17.7%, Danilo is a star in the making.
Another whose stock is rising is PSV forward Donyell Malen. The path from Eindhoven to Tottenham is one that was walked 18 months ago by Steven Bergwijn, who has endured mixed success with Spurs. A first team regular in the early months of the season, a miss in the 2-1 loss to Liverpool in December proved costly as Mourinho inexplicably elected to use the Dutchman sparingly up until his dismissal despite playing a key role alongside Son Heung-Min and Kane on the Spurs frontline.
Malen, though, was superb for PSV this season as they finished second to runaway leaders Ajax. The 22-year-old scored 19 times and provided an additional eight assists for PSV, those coming from respective returns of 3.5 shots and 1.1 key passes per game, and yielding a solid enough conversion rate of 16.8%. However, the issue with both Danilo and Malen is the lack of aerial presence they offer. Both averaged 0.8 and 0.3 aerial duels won per game, respectively, in the Eredivisie this season and after the failed Vincent Janssen experiment, it remains to be seen whether Spurs would return to the Netherlands for another young forward on the back of a successful campaign.
This, then, brings us back to the next candidate on the list - A young, record-breaking English forward. Ivan Toney has previous against Spurs having seen a goal ruled out for offside when Brentford made the trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the Carabao Cup semi-finals back in January, but didn't let that disappointment deter him from ending the campaign with 31 league goals, a record haul in a Championship season.
On top of that, Toney ended the regular season with 10 assists and was, along with Emiliano Buendia, one of two players to return double figures for both in England's second tier in 2020/21. Spurs missed a trick by not following up their interest in former Bees hitman Ollie Watkins last summer, who has gone on to excel for Aston Villa, but if Brentford miss out on promotion - they did lose their first leg playoff meeting to Bournemouth on Monday - then Spurs could chance their luck on landing Toney.
The 25-year-old also dominated aerially when needed. While Toney may not be the tallest striker, an average of 3.3 aerial duels won per game exceeds Kane, as does an aerial success rate of 47.3% compared to the Spurs man's 40.4%. Toney has chipped in with averages of three shots and one key pass per game for Championship side Brentford, while his conversion rate is a superb 23.0%.
The final potential Kane successor exceeds even that with Andre Silva yielding a 23.9% conversion rate in the Bundesliga this season. In a scoring chart led by record-equalling Robert Lewandowski, Silva is the best of the rest having scored 27 goals in 31 appearances this season, and chipping in with a further five assists. The Portugal forward only joined Eintracht Frankfurt permanently from AC Milan in September, yet his reputation has soared in 2020/21, so much so that a move to Manchester City has been mooted.
Of course, the German side will be keen to retain his services, but having landed former star Luka Jovic in January, albeit on loan until the end of the season, Silva's potential exit would be eased by a possible permanent stay of the Serb. Granted, Silva has just five league assists to his name in 2020/21, but it isn't for want of trying having averaged 0.9 key passes per game this season. He's a shade shorter than Kane, but is winning marginally more aerial duels per game (2.3) and boasts a better aerial success rate (44.4%).
There is also the added benefit of experience playing in Europe's top leagues and while not a jab at Brentford or Toney, it's likely that Spurs will be in the market for a striker who also has European and international pedigree.
With that said, it will be a tough ask for Spurs to replace Kane. Nevertheless, there are attainable options that have put in similar numbers to the England captain across the continent that would help ease his potential heartbreaking depature from north London.
