FPL Gameweek 27 Tips: Is it worth triple-captaining Haaland against Man Utd?

Erling Haaland geared up for the Manchester Derby in style. The Manchester City forward put five past Luton on Tuesday night as the defending champions earned a 6-2 win at Kenilworth Road to breeze into the next round of the FA Cup. Next up for City and Haaland is the welcome of rivals Manchester United. 

United are not necessarily in a mess. The 2-1 loss to Fulham last week was a blip on the record books but even so; Erik ten Hag has overseen a run of six wins from their last seven. The results, though, mask the sub-par performances. Indeed, United conceded 17 shots to Fulham last weekend, and it means that they have conceded 16 or more shots in 14 league matches this season; no team have allowed that many in more games. 

For the most part, United matches are playing out like basketball games. It's end-to-end stuff that is great for the neutrals but a strain on fans who will be nervously looking to Sunday's trip across Manchester. 

United don't have a great record at the Etihad Stadium either. They have lost their last two trips to City and conceded 10 goals in that run. Haaland himself managed a hat-trick in this game last season as Pep Guardiola's side secured a 6-3 home win. In addition, the Norway international has been directly involved in eight goals (5 goals, 3 assists) in just three league outings against United a rate of a goal or assist every 34 minutes. 

What doesn't bode well for United is that their Expected Goals (xG) against this season is 45.34, that the eighth highest in the Premier League. They have conceded just 35 goals, excluding own goals, which means an xG against difference of -10.34, the second highest in the league behind Liverpool (-10.99), though the latter can call upon the likes of Alisson and Virgil van Dijk to help deal with any attacking threat. United have conceded far fewer goals than than should be the case, yet rank fourth for shots conceded per game (16) in the 2023/24 Premier League campaign. Might their luck run out this weekend?

This is where Haaland comes into play. Not only has the City goal machine scored more goals (17) than any other player in the Premier League this season... he should have more. Yes, Haaland is underperforming his xG in England's top tier by 3.48. He should already be on 20 goals in 2023/24. Factor in that he is averaging 1.06 xG per 90, that the highest in England's top tier... United could be in for another City demolition job this weekend. 

Ahead of the weekend, then, the question turns on whether to triple-captain Haaland for the Manchester Derby. He has already been selected by 76% of teams on Fantasy Premier League this weekend, so you need to find a way to get the edge on rivals in your bid to claim maximum points. With the stats backing up the decision to potentially use this triple points boost this weekend, coupled with his record against United, it's a bit of a no-brainer. 

When you consider Phil Foden's form this season, the link up with Kevin De Bruyne - the Belgian assisted four of Haaland's five goals in midweek - and United's defensive shortcomings, and a Haaland triple-captain pick for gameweek 27 stands to reap the benefits.