Costa and Kane set to battle for Premier League's strongest striker
The festive period draws to a close on Wednesday night as Chelsea make the short trip across London to face their rivals Tottenham at White Hart Lane. In the reverse fixture this term, the Blues ended Spurs’ unbeaten start to the season and after derailing their Premier League title hopes last term, Mauricio Pochettino’s side will be out to dent Chelsea’s pursuit for domestic glory. A 4-2 win over Stoke last time out means the Blues have won their last 13 Premier League matches, in the process matching Arsenal’s top-flight record for successive victories.
Antonio Conte’s decision to switch to a 3-4-3 formation is evidently reaping the benefits and they now have the chance to open up an eight-point lead at the summit of the table following Liverpool’s failure to overcome Sunderland. As two of the form teams in the league go head to head on Wednesday night, as do two of the in-form frontmen in the Premier League. Diego Costa has scored more goals (14) than any other player in England’s top tier this term and looks a good bet to end the season as the league’s top scorer. Yet, it’s impossible to discount Harry Kane from the running just yet.
A brace in Spurs’ 4-1 win over Watford on New Year’s Day means that, after 100 Premier League appearances, Kane has 59 goals to his name, while his record of 18 goals in 23 London derbies is mightily impressive. The England international also has three league goals to his name in five league appearances against Chelsea, including a memorable brace in Spurs’ entertaining 5-3 win over the Blues a little over two years ago.
However, just how do the striking pair rank among the most clinical frontmen in the Premier League this season? Seven players have scored 10 or more goals in England’s top tier, including Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Alexis Sanchez, Sergio Aguero, Romelu Lukaku and Jermain Defoe to go with Costa and Kane. The importance of a player's goals cannot be overestimated and it's here why Defoe is so vital for Sunderland. He has scored 11 of their 19 Premier League goals this season (57.9%), which is the best individual goal contribution in England's top tier this campaign by some distance, with Ibrahimovic (41.9%) in second. In terms of shots taken, Ibrahimovic tops not only the mini-league of frontmen, but also the Premier League in its entirety having mustered 86 shots across his 19 appearances this term. This unwavering confidence in his ability means the 35-year-old will go for goal where possible and Manchester United are the beneficiaries.
No United player has matched or bettered the Swede's return of 13 league goals since the 2013/14 season where Wayne Rooney was top scorer with 17 goals to his name. With 18 games still to play, however, Ibrahimovic is on course to break that record and, should he maintain his current rate, would break the 25-goal barrier, which, in a debut campaign in a new league, would be a hugely impressive return. That being said, though, with so many shots relative to his goalscoring return - as commendable as it may be - Ibrahimovic’s conversion rate (15.1%) is the worst of those to score 10 or more Premier League goals this term.
Ibrahimovic should also arguably have scored more than just the 13 league goals this season having missed more clear-cut goalscoring opportunities (11) than any other Premier League player. Crossing the Manchester divide, it doesn’t make for better reading for City striker Sergio Aguero. Upon Luis Suarez’s move to Barcelona, the Argentine was widely considered the Premier League’s best striker, yet despite missing six matches, largely due to suspension, he’s still had the fourth most shots (67) in England’s top tier this term.
11 goals in 14 appearances is certainly not to be scoffed at, but a conversion rate of 16.4% ranks a little above Ibrahimovic. At the opposite end of the spectrum, we find the Premier League’s hotshot hitmen in Costa (25.9%) and Kane (23.8%). While Kane took some time to find his stride once again this term, he’s back among the goals and, interestingly, is averaging fewer shots per game this season (3) than last (4.2). As such, 10 goals from just 42 shots is a highly respectable ratio for the Spurs man, even if three of his 10 Premier League strikes have come from the penalty spot.
Having scored the joint-most clear-cut goalscoring opportunities (8) in the Premier League this season, Kane is clearly a fine performer at working his way into the best possible positions to hit the back of the net, which is all the more evident in that he has missed just two of 10 clear-cut goalscoring opportunities, one of which was a penalty miss in the 4-1 win at Southampton. To an extent, though, this measure makes Costa’s goal return all the more impressive. Of his 14 Premier League goals, only three were deemed clear-cut goalscoring chances, which shows the Spaniard’s ability to hit the back of the net even against the odds, similar to his goal in Chelsea’s 1-0 win over West Brom, where he forced Gareth McAuley into an error before finishing with aplomb past Ben Foster.
Having been on the verge of a Stamford Bridge exit over the summer, Conte convinced Costa to remain at Chelsea and the Blues are excelling with the Spain international spearheading the charge. In this fixture last season, Costa was benched and made the headlines for all the wrong reasons, with the infamous Bibgate chief among them. Now, though, he has the opportunity to fire Chelsea into the record books and take another step towards ending the campaign atop the Premier League. With Kane in equally good form, however, Spurs have the means to end Chelsea’s winning run and dent their procession to the title and on Wednesday night; the Premier League’s best frontmen this season have the means to fire in the necessary goals to secure their side a crucial three points at White Hart Lane.
