Player Focus: A Fresh Start for Danny Welbeck at Arsenal

For a player whose brief career has so far never really seen him at centre-stage for his club, Danny Welbeck has been at the centre of some big pretty storylines this week. Most obviously and most recently, there was the late tension in the transfer window, as the striker’s move to Arsenal was dependent on Radamel Falcao’s shock loan to Manchester United going through. The signing itself also brought two grander issues at both clubs to a head.

At Old Trafford, the manner in which Welbeck personified an old trend has provoked debate about a new departure for United. The 23-year-old was not just another graduate from their historic youth structure, but also a very local lad in the squad at a point when they have never been so global. If there was always some doubt about whether he was good enough to command a regularly starting place, there was also an undeniably rare romance to his otherwise modern career. It has been the source of some sadness in Manchester that it has ended. From that, debate has grown over the direction of their youth approach.

Welbeck himself has indirectly found himself at the centre of another longer-term debate: that about Arsène Wenger’s transfer policy. Given the noises at the club, the likelihood is Arsenal would not have signed any other striker had it not been for the injury to Olivier Giroud. It all adds in to the frustration over the failure - or perhaps reluctance - to sign a driving defensive midfielder. Wenger was only pushed into business by an extreme situation, and that has led to an extreme range of responses.

Some Arsenal fans are just relieved, others are extremely excited, the rest are waiting to see. That reflects the status of Welbeck as a player right now. There is clear potential, but not yet much overwhelming proof.

It remains difficult to square glorious finishes like those against Swansea at the start of last season or Everton in April 2012, with the missed one-on-one against Bayern Munich, of the type that prevented his scoring figures being better.

The thrust of his running and ingenuity of some touches is not always matched by the precision of his play, or the quality of his decision-making. Part of that is undeniably down to his youth. Part of it is down to how he’s been used. A young player picked infrequently or outside his best position is never going to quite get into his most productive rhythm. 

It is why, as Welbeck approaches 24, this move could also be revealing. Set to play more regularly and in a more central role - certainly until Olivier Giroud returns from injury - we may see the real player.

Right now, though, the interest is in what Welbeck can bring from what we know. Beyond just filling in for Giroud and providing an extra option, what does he offer Arsenal?

One quality is clear. Welbeck’s coltish and forceful running gives Wenger’s side more thrust, which could be crucial given how flat they looked last season when Theo Walcott and Aaron Ramsey were injured.

That advantage is clear. Welbeck’s running is also displayed by his offsides. He was caught 1.5 times a game last season, far more than any Arsenal player (Giroud is 0.8, Walcott 0.5). Arsenal will at least be much more lively with Welbeck in the team. There will be an unpredictability that can help in opening teams.

That liveliness also translates to how much Welbeck works between the lines. He offered 0.9 interceptions a match in 2013-14, which was far more than any of Arsenal’s attacking players. The closest - again - was Giroud with 0.5. Welbeck is also willing to take players on with 0.8 dribbles a game - resulting in him being fouled 1.2 times a game. The flip side will remain the finishes, what Welbeck does with all of that.

There is, however, one other encouraging stat that hints that potential could well end up providing real proof that he can move up a level. Welbeck last season had a conversation rate of 19.6%, which was better than every Arsenal player except Aaron Ramsey, who hit 20% (of those to make at least 10 appearances). It is a figure that suggests his oft-debated end product might be there. It could be the start of a different story for Welbeck.

Do you think Welback will be a success at Arsenal? Let us know in the comments below