Match Focus: The MLS Cup Final - A Statistical Preview

After two years of dominance by the glamorous and free-spending Los Angeles Galaxy, the MLS Cup final will this season feature two of the league’s best-run clubs, Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake.

While it is hardly a Cascadia rivalry there is some competition between the two sides, giving the clash an edge in what will be a red-hot atmosphere in freezing cold conditions in Kansas City. If the playoffs had been dictated by regular season standings the Portland Timbers and New York Red Bulls would be competing Saturday’s showpiece event. Yet it is the two teams that finished second in their respective conferences who have made the final.

If the first 14 years of the league’s existence are to be considered MLS 1.0 and the six years since the landmark signing of David Beckham MLS 2.0, then Saturday’s game could mark a shift into MLS 3.0. Both Sporting KC and Real Salt Lake are shining examples of modern MLS clubs, playing in state-of-the-art stadiums to bumper crowds. 

But how will the two sides line up against each other on Saturday?

Back in July when Jason Kreis’ side lost to Sporting KC, RSL General Manager Garth Lagerway contrasted the two teams’ styles of play. “We play diametrically opposed styles of soccer,” he insisted. “We want to keep the ball, we want to possess, we want to attack. Kansas City want to kick people.”

But are the two sides really that different? Lagerway may say Sporting KC are more physical than his team but RSL have a strong spine to their side too. In fact Kreis based his playoff strategy on the conservative pairing of Chris Schuler and Nat Borchers, backed up by the anticipation and reading of Kyle Beckerman.

Schuler and Beckerman are crucial to RSL’s strategy of breaking up opposition possession, respectively averaging 4.3 and 2.6 interceptions per game. And when the ball is recycled Beckerman takes control, providing Javier Morales and other attacking threats with possession.

Morales has emerged as a figure for the big occasion for Real Salt Lake, overshadowing his Portland Timbers counterpart Diego Valeri when they met in the Western Conference finals. Morales controls the tempo and pace of RSL’s play, dictating the direction and type of attack about to be mounted.

With 9 assists Morales is the creative brain of Real Salt Lake, making an average of 3.7 key passes per game. Playing an average of 60.8 passes per game also demonstrates how he is the link between RSL’s midfield diamond and the attack.

But who’s on hand to take advantage of Morales’ imagination? Kreis tends to favour a 4-3-1-2 formation, with the Argentine in behind an attacking duo normally consisting of Joao Plata and Alvaro Saborio. Saborio’s importance to RSL is underlined in his goal tally for the season, going into the final game of the campaign with 12 goals in 18 appearances; a rate of a goal every game and a half.

Robbie Findley has also been crucial for RSL in the playoffs, giving Kreis’ team a cutting edge in the penalty area. The 28-year-old has two goals and an assist in his last two games, highlighting his opportunistic nature having averaged just 1.5 shots per game for the season.

With Claudio Bieler still struggling for match sharpness, Sporting KC are without a formidable presence leading the line, with Dominic Dwyer filling the role for much of the playoffs. The unpredictability and energy of Kei Kamara has been a big miss for Sporting KC since the Sierra Leone international’s switch to Middlebrough at the end of the summer transfer window.

However C.J. Sapong has somewhat stepped into the void left in the attacking frontline by Kamara. The 24-year-old, who went on loan to the third tier of US football earlier this season, has contributed 3 assists and 5 goals this campaign. Yet he needs to involve himself in build up play more often, averaging just 17.8 passes per game.

And while Real Salt Lake have Morales, Sporting Kansas City have Graham Zusi, although their playmaker does play a different position. Having forced his way into the USA national team Zusi has become Sporting KC’s most important player on the right side of their attacking frontline.

He averages 2.9 crosses per game (Soony Saad with one cross per game is Sporting KC’s next best crosser) and 3 key passes per game (Benny Feilhaber with 1.5 per game is closest to him). Zusi is also Peter Vermes’ most prolific assister, with seven for the season.

As previously mentioned, Sporting KC’s problem isn’t creating the opportunities but taking them, without Bieler and Kamara in the side. Despite this Sporting KC may never have a better chance to win their first MLS Cup title since 2000.

Who do you think will be victorious on Saturday night? Let us know in the comments below