Los Reyes Magos, i Re Magi, the Three Kings. The holiday that brings back Serie A and La Liga, and for Italian teams, a time that favours the home clubs, while in Spain los Reyes Magos should bring plenty of goals with them as presents.
LIKELY BETS
Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo: OVER 3.5 GOALS @ 1.61
The problem for Madrid is no longer finding the net: 16 goals scored in their last 3 league games at the Bernabeu. Moreover, it's now 7 games in a row that their games have gone over 3.5 goals, while even though Celta Vigo can be extremely poor at times, they have the 4th best away attack in La Liga this season. Real Madrid lead La Liga by some distance for both of shots per game and shots on target per game: it could be a tough holiday for Celta…
Malaga vs Atletico Madrid: AWAY WIN @ 1.53
Simeone's gang hopes to pick up where they left off: joint top of the table, but playing better football than the 2 'big ones'. Malaga have a shaky record at home having won 4 and lost 4 so far and all of their WhoScored weaknesses highlight defensive frailties.
Parma vs Torino: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @ 1.83
The rumours around a possible Cassano departure have probably boosted Fantantonio's pride to show his desire to stay at Parma. That could spell trouble for a Torino side who have actually scored in each of their last 8 games, and alongside Cerci they now have Immobile on fire too. Parma will once again be missing Paletta, who along with Lucarelli forms one of most reliable centre-backs partnerships in Serie A.
TEMPTING BETS
Barcelona vs Elche: OVER 3.5 GOALS @ 1.72
Fantastic odds considering that Barcelona's last 6 league games at Camp Nou against minor teams (those outside of the top 6 or not a derby) have each registered over 3.5 goals. Elche are not merely a sparring partner, having scored in all of their 8 league away games this season.
Juventus vs Roma: JUVENTUS WIN FIRST HALF @ 2.20
One of Antonio Conte's best traits is his ability to push his team to kill off matches from the very first minute, at least in Serie A. Juventus have had 5 big games in the league, 3 of which they have led at half time. On the other side, Roma have struggled lately to break the deadlock: in 4 of their last 5 games they were held after the first half. In Turin it is predictable that Juventus will be very aggressive and - maybe - Roma could make a comeback. With one starting defender absent each - Barzagli for Juventus, Balzaretti for Roma - Barzagli should be replaced by Caceres and that is exactly where Totti could win the game, but importantly Pogba could find some precious, decisive space if Pjanic is too advanced. The French could also be dangerous in the air, as according to WhoScored Roma's only weakness is in aerial duels.
Fiorentina vs Livorno: FIORENTINA TO WIN (-1.5) @ 2.00
Exactly 50% of the times that Fiorentina have won, they have done so with at least a 2-goal advantage. Meanwhile in 4 of Livorno's last 5 defeats they have lost by a margin of at least 2 goals. Livorno have a complete lack of confidence lately, which is dangerous considering that WhoScored's match forecast suggests that Fiorentina are likely to 'control the game in the opposition's half'. Last but not least, Emerson is suspended for Livorno, and he has been the only player able to keep some of their defensive organisation together.
LONG SHOT BETS
Chievo vs Cagliari: HOME WIN @ 2.37
Chievo's brilliant 4-game winning streak under new manager Eugenio Corini ended with 2 consecutive defeats in which the side may have felt hard done by. That run could restart against Cagliari however, who are one of only two teams yet to win away. One of the visitors' main weaknesses stressed by WhoScored is 'avoiding individual errors', a problem that could be exploited by Thereau's fantastic form of late.
Genoa vs Sassuolo: HOME WIN @ 2.10
Things have gone a bit quiet at Genoa. After two greats months under new manager Gasperini they are now without a win in 5 games. Things won't be easy against Sassuolo, but surely there will be no better chance of restoring hope and points. In WhoScored's team characteristics it is indicated that Sassuolo are very weak when 'defending against skillful players', and Gilardino's quality has been pretty relevant for Genoa.
Valladolid vs Betis: HOME WIN @ 2.37
Betis' tragic away form is what is keeping the Andalusians at the bottom of the league: only 1 point gained from a possible 24 on the road, while Valladolid at home have a record that ranks in mid-table. WhoScored's match forecast predicts that it is very likely that Valladolid 'will score from a wing play situation'.
What are your top tips for the weekend's action? Let us know in the comments below
