With just 180 minutes of the regular Championship season remaining, things could not be tighter at the top of England’s second tier. Just three goals separate Burnley, Middlesbrough and Brighton, with the Clarets favourites to secure glory once more. Michael Keane’s 92nd minute equaliser at home to Middlesbrough last week kept Burnley’s title hopes alive, before Sean Dyche’s side capitalised on Boro’s 0-0 draw with Ipswich to open up a one-goal gap at the Championship’s summit.
The general consensus is that Burnley are worthy title winners, should it come to pass. A 1-0 win at Preston last Friday means Dyche’s side are unbeaten in their last 21 league fixtures. They have taken more points in 2016 (46) than any other Championship team and are one of two sides yet to lose a game this calendar year in the top four tiers of English football, the other being Northampton. After an indifferent festive period, Burnley found form at just the right time as they maintain their quest for an immediate Premier League return.
Burnley have scored the second most goals (68), have at their disposal the leagues’ top scorer in Andre Gray (24 goals) and boast a Championship loss rate of just 11.4%. Having largely kept the core of the squad that secured promotion two years ago and played a part in their Premier League campaign together, Burnley have the knowhow to secure promotion and should do so. They’ve been helped, of course, by the arrivals of experienced top-flight pair Joey Barton and Matthew Lowton.
Barton is the club’s top rated player (7.31) followed closely by Lowton (7.30), with the duo playing key roles - particularly in 2016 - in Burnley’s rise to the Championship’s summit. Indeed, in 2016, coinciding with the Clarets’ upturn in form, 33-year-old Barton has made 120 tackles and interceptions combined, a return bettered only by Dean Lewington (134). Lowton places fifth on that list (112). Meanwhile, only Paul Gallagher (120) has won possession in the midfield third more time than Barton (104) in the Championship in 2016.
The necessary defensive solidity afforded means Burnley have conceded just 12 goals from 20 league games in 2016, with Barton effortlessly shielding the backline, utilising his experience to ease pressure on the defence. For a team that lost defensive mainstay Jason Shackell over the summer to Derby County, the need for a consistent performer to lend a helping hand in the middle of the park was essential with Barton - following a shaky start - establishing himself as a key player.
The same goes for Lowton, who eased the loss of Kieran Trippier to help form an impressive understanding with George Boyd when brought into the side at Tandayi Darikwa's expense. Importantly, though, Dyche demanded his players maximise the full width of the pitch in order to break forward, unlike last season where the primary point of attack came down the right, rendering the Clarets predictable. It’s helped Burnley move to the top of the Championship with just two games to play, though they need to at the very least match Middlesbrough and Brighton’s results over the next 10 days.
Boro can rightly be considered Burnley’s biggest rivals for the title and could well have secured the crown already had it not been for off-field issues in March, where between defeats to Rotherham and Charlton, manager Aitor Karanka endured a major collapse in relations with the players. However, both parties repaired the strained relationship and have since gone on an unbeaten run of eight games ahead of the penultimate weekend of the campaign. Had they held out for all three points at Burnley, the Championship title race would likely have already run its course.
However, despite sitting in second place, it’s impossible to count Middlesbrough out of the running just yet. Karanka’s side have gained a better WhoScored rating (6.95) than any other Championship team this season and a win over Birmingham on Friday night will heap the pressure on Brighton and Burnley, who both play on Monday. It’s also worth noting that Middlesbrough host Brighton on the final day of the season, which will have a huge bearing on who ends the campaign in top spot.
Brighton have impressed at the Riverside Stadium in recent seasons, with the Seagulls unbeaten on their last three visits to the north east, winning twice. Chris Hughton’s side are in fine form coming into the final straight, securing victory in their last five league outings, the current longest winning streak in the Championship. In that run, Brighton have netted 16 league goals and are subsequently the league’s top scorers with 70 goals to their name this term.
With goal difference perhaps set to play a key role given the closeness of the three teams, Brighton’s ruthlessness may prove decisive. Conversely, however, Boro’s home form means the Seagulls have arguably the toughest run in. Middlesbrough have won more home points (52) than any other Championship team this season, while Burnley welcome a QPR side that underwhelms on the road before their trip to an already relegated Charlton Athletic on the final day of the campaign.
Burnley are deservedly instilled as favourites to secure the title this term, but they mustn’t rest on their laurels ahead of the final two games of the regular season. Middlesbrough and Brighton are ready to pounce should Dyche’s side slip up and the Burnley boss will demand 100% focus on the task at hand as the Clarets aim to end one the Championship’s tightest ever title race at the top.
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