Match Focus: Fenerbahce vs Besiktas - Make or Break for Bilic and Kartal

The 2014/15 season was supposed to be the battle for the fourth star. Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe, both 19-time Süper Lig champions were built up as the title contenders expected to lock horns in a gigantean race to be the first to get to 20… then along came Beşiktaş.

The Black Eagles are currently first in the Süper Lig, two points clear of second placed Galatasaray and four ahead of Fenerbahçe. A win against the Yellow Canaries on Sunday could all but end their title hopes. It may sound a tad hyperbolic considering there will still be 27 points up for grab in the aftermath of the derby but Istanbul’s Asian juggernauts are on a tipping point.

Fenerbahçe looked destined to go on a glorious run following their 1-0 win over Galatasaray in the Intercontinental derby but Gençlerbirliği brought the Canaries crashing back down to Earth last week. The Ankara based side beat Fenerbahçe 2-1 just three weeks after Ismail Kartal’s side had their 33-match unbeaten home run put to an end by Akhisar.

The derby win appears to have done little more than paint over the cracks. Take the derby win out of the equation and Fenerbahçe have only managed one point out of a possible nine over their last three games. If you glance over Fenerbahçe’s stats you may be left scratching your head as to why the Canaries are struggling. The Istanbul giants keep the most possession (58%), take the most shots on goal per game (18.2) make the most passes per-match (402) with the highest pass completion rate (81%) and boast the highest average rating (7.18).

A closer look however, reveals the underlying problem. The Canaries have taken 85 shots over their past four games but only scored 4 goals. Fenerbahçe have one of the worst conversion rates in the league (8.9%). In contrast, Beşiktaş have only taken 59 shots and scored 8 times over their last four matches.

Slaven Bilic’s attacking quartet, comprised of Demba Ba, Jose Sosa, Olcay Şahan and Gökhan Töre, has flourished for much of the season but recently suffered its first casualty. Sosa picked up an injury a few weeks back but the likes of Tolgay Arslan and Oğuzhan Özyakup have been able to fill in. Arslan in particular has shown glimpses of why the Eagles were involved in a winter transfer war with Trabzonspor to prise him away from HSV. The 24-year-old proved his worth by scoring the winner against Liverpool in the Europa League Round of 32.

Right winger Töre has gone from strength to strength this season, the former Chelsea youth did not have a league goal until he joined Besiktas but now has a career high 9 goals – and 10 assists to boot. The Turkish international’s pace and dribbling ability could cause Fenerbahçe a problem and the match up against Canaries left-back Caner Erkin could be end up being one of the key battles in the derby.

Fenerbahçe will, however, undoubtedly be most concerned about Demba Ba, who already has 24 goals this season and although he has looked tired in recent weeks the Canaries cannot afford to allow him space. Ba is the Black Eagles’ highest rated player (to have played over 15 games this season) with 7.25, boasting a 24.2% conversion rate.

In contrast, the topic of strikers is a bit of a sore subject for Fenerbahçe. Emmanuel Emenike has scored only four goals all season but Kartal has been insistent on sticking with him, while Moussa Sow has hardly been prolific.

Beşiktaş are not without their problems either, the Eagles have looked fatigued over recent weeks and crashed out of the Europa League in disastrous fashion, losing 3-1 against Club Brugge at home in front of a capacity crowd at Atatürk Olympic stadium. Bilic had switched to a 4-4-2 for the Brugge game after using the same formation to topple Erciyesspor 5-1 in the league last week.

The Croatian manager perhaps overestimated the strength of his hand after that resounding win. In retrospect Bilic was naive, Beşiktaş had beaten a relegation-threatened team and it was premature to switch from a tried and tested 4-2-3-1 setup to an experimental 4-4-2 in such an important European game. It would be criminal if Bilic were not to learn from his mistakes going into the derby.

The Eagles’ unsung hero, Canadian international Atiba Hutchinson should be back and will be expected to join Veli Kavlak just in front of the back four, forming the backbone of the side. It is worth noting that Beşiktaş lost both legs against Club Brugge despite taking the lead – Hutchinson was out for both games but played a key role in the side’s impressive performances against Arsenal, Tottenham and put in a Man of the Match performance against Liverpool in Istanbul (8.73 rating).

Istanbul derbies are always a big deal but they rarely occur at such an important juncture in the clubs’ league campaign. The stars have aligned this time around, this is the derby equivalent of a solar eclipse: Beşiktaş will go seven points clear with a win against Fenerbahçe. Alternatively the Canaries could close to gap to just one point with a victory. A loss for either manager could mean disaster, a loss in confidence from the board as well as the fans and team spirit in tatters. This could very well end up being a season and career defining derby for both managers.

Who do you think will come out on top in this crucial Istanbul derby? Let us know in the comments below