Team Focus: Martin Jol Need Not Worry About Adding Another Striker

Martin Jol was fairly accurate with his recent assertion that his Fulham squad is in need of another striker to lessen the goalscoring burden on Dimitar Berbatov. The Bulgarian only just completed his transfer to Craven Cottage in time last summer - he joined on the final day of the transfer window - and Fulham would be a whole lot worse off if that hadn't gone through in time. He was the only Fulham player to score more than 5 Premier League goals last season, bagging 15 himself, with Mladen Petric and Bryan Ruiz following (5 apiece). Petric scored 2 of his goals on debut back in August and he has now left the club. Jol is exaggerating, though. Another goalscorer isn't needed, just helpful. 

Nonetheless, it would be a poor decision to compromise Berbatov's attacking input in any way and that may put off players from moving to southwest London. Operating primarily with just one man up front last term, Jol isn't able to promise a regular spot in the starting lineup to strikers he looks into buying, and rightly so.

The former Tottenham and Manchester United man has managed to stand out just about wherever his football has taken him, but arguably nowhere more so than last season at Fulham. Playing ahead of a midfield that oft contained the likes of Steven Sidwell and an ageing Giogos Karagounis, Berba was always going to be the star of the show and he delivered with seeming ease.

What Jol will have to be careful of when bringing in any more attack-minded players is that the team does not suffer when a new striker plays. The likelihood is that the manager will not switch from playing with a lone striker, so another attacker would force Berbatov to play deeper in the number 10 role and Bryan Ruiz would thus move out wide, likely taking 34-year old Damien Duff's spot in the side. Whilst a new striker could provide the pace that Jol believes his side need to 'get in behind' the opposition defence, both Ruiz and Berbatov may not take to kindly to being moved to accommodate such a player.

Ruiz maintained a WhoScored rating of 7.35 in his preferred attacking midfield role, compared to just 6.4 when moved out wide. Similarly, Berbatov scored 7.32 on average when playing up front and that dropped to 6.95 when playing deeper. Furthermore, Berbatov scored 14 goals and assisted 3 more in his 26 appearances as a striker, but could only net once in 6 appearances in the number 10 role that many consider him most suited to. Given his lack of pace, his technical ability and eye for a killer pass that few else would spot, there is good reason to believe he would be better off playing behind another striker. In terms of the good of the team, this is far from the case, though.

Fulham won 11 Premier League matches in the 2012/13 campaign; 10 of those wins came in the 26 games with Berbatov playing as a centre-forward (the only other victory being the aforementioned in which Petric scored twice - a 5-0 win on the opening day of the season against Norwich). That 38.5% win rate with Berbatov starting up front was much of the reason they finished as high up the table as they did. In the 6 games when he started in AMC behind either Petric or Hugo Rodallega, the Cottagers failed to win a single game, and only managed to score twice. That is, with Berbatov in attacking midfield, Fulham gained an average of 0.5 points per game, scoring 0.33 goals per game, while when the Bulgarian started up front, they won an average of 1.54 points and scored an average of 1.46 goals.

It was not as if the games he played in a deeper position were more difficult. Amongst those matches were 1-1 draws at home to Wigan and Southampton, a goalless draw at Norwich and a 1-0 loss at Stoke. The other two games were meek 3-0 losses at home to Spurs and Chelsea. The only reason to compromise Berbatov's attacking capabilities would be if there were sufficient quality brought in to replace him up front but with the season opening drawing near, the chances of Jol doing so appear to be fading.

Papers aplenty have linked the Dutchman with a reunion with Darren Bent, whom he brought to White Hart Lane for a club record transfer fee, and it wouldn't be a bad idea for Jol to push for that transfer to happen. His goalscoring exploits is up there with the best in recent times in England; only 5 players have scored more Premier League goals over the past 4 seasons than Bent, who has netted an impressive 53 times, despite only starting 8 games in the most recent campaign. 

But would having Bent as a striker and Berbatov deeper be an improvement for the Cottagers? Arguably not. Interestingly, Berbatov is one of those five to have netted more goal than Bent since the start of the 2009/10 season. Those goals have almost exclusively come from a striking berth and there is good reason to believe that he should retain the spot at Craven Cottage. Bent has not played regularly for well over a year and, despite his relative pedigree, would represent something of a risk at £6m, the reported fee. He is far from happy at his lack of opportunities at Villa Park at present and would certainly not be any happier doing a similar job at Fulham.

The fact of the matter is however that Berbatov plays best when played up front and Fulham perform best when Berbatov plays well; they lost only 1 of the 14 Premier League games in which he scored last season. The combination of Ruiz-Berbatov as the 10-9 in the Fulham lineup worked, and while another option up front would be beneficial, only back up is really necessary. Fulham do not have endless funds and six million pounds is a lot of money. Martin Jol has signed young talent before and he could do so again. The club have no need to rush into buying another striker and should not worry too much if they fail in their pursuits. A top half finish is wholly achievable; it was always going to be with Dimitar Berbatov around.