Assessing the outright Nations League winner odds as England price shortens

As the UEFA Nations League gets underway with hosts Portugal taking on Switzerland on Wednesday night and favourites to become the first team to lift the trophy, we assess the outright odds and the value play ahead of the semi-finals.

Portugal: Best Price - 2.8 (Red Zone)

While the gap is shortening between the favourites ahead of this week’s action it’s Fernando Santos’ side that hold a slender advantage with the bookies. The reigning European champions welcome Cristiano Ronaldo back into the squad with the forward having not featured for the national side since the World Cup and his return has certainly played a part in the outright winner odds.

The biggest factor, however, in the Selecao’s short price is their semi-final opponents, with Switzerland very much the dark horse of the tournament. That said, Portugal’s record over the last year, venturing back to the start of the World Cup, is uninspiring to say the least.

Still very much a draw specialist, they’ve won just three of ten matches in that time - never by more than a single goal - and lost only once. Given the attacking potential at their disposal, with the likes of Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes and wonderkid Joao Felix in support of Ronaldo, if they can click in the final third they might merit their favourite status. However, there’s been very little encouragement to suggest that Santos is the man to get the best out of an exciting group of players.

England: Best Price - 3.0 (Multiple)

Ahead of a clash with Netherlands on Thursday, England’s price to win the tournament outright has been narrowing in recent days but getting past the Orange will be no mean feat. Given the number of Gareth Southgate’s squad that have linked up only this week due to the Champions League final, there’s reason to believe that may play a factor over the coming days.

While it’s true that both Virgil van Dijk and Georginio Wijnaldum are in the same boat for Ronald Koeman’s side, England have welcomed Trent Alexander-Arnold, Joe Gomez, Jordan Henderson, Danny Rose, Eric Dier, Dele Alli and Harry Kane back into the fold later than they would have liked. The latter’s fitness is also a concern ahead of this week, while given the celebrations over the weekend, Henderson may be given a rest too.

If that is the case then the Dutch may be expected to control the middle ground and it’s an area that could prove pivotal to what already looks set to be an extremely close match up. It certainly seems likely that the winner of the second semi-final will be the favourite to win the title come Sunday.

Netherlands: Best Price - 4.33 (Betway)

It’s hard to look beyond Koeman’s improving and exciting side as the best value ahead of the tournament, with a relatively large disparity in their odds to win outright from that of England. That’s despite the prices being far closer when it comes to Thursday’s semi-final, with The Three Lions understandably the slight favourites given their recent record.

That said, the defensive pairing of Virgil van Dijk and Matthijs de Ligt is the envy of most sides in the world right now, and if Kane isn’t deemed fully fit to start then it will be up to a young England attack to break the Dutch down. It’s that particular area where Southgate’s side are still deemed to have the edge but one shouldn’t underestimate just how talismanic Memphis Depay has been in the Netherlands’ resurgence.

Impressive victories over Germany and France booked a place in Portugal and if they can add England to that list then I would make this side the considerable favourites to win the final, so any odds in excess of 4.0 would be tempting to me.

Switzerland: Best Price - 9.0 (Betway)

The clear underdogs to come out on top this week, it’s fair to say the bookmakers haven’t paid too much attention to what was a remarkable 5-2 win over Belgium for the Swiss to make the final four. Having fallen two down early on Vladimir Petkovic’s side needed to score four without conceding any more in order to progress and ended up doing so with room to spare.

Since then a side that has previously looked pragmatic and lacking in real creativity have continued to score freely, beating Georgia 2-0 before throwing away an impressive 3-0 lead over Denmark with just six minutes remaining. They were without key defender Fabian Schar and hat-trick hero Haris Seferovic that night but with both back available they could easily cause an upset on Wednesday.

The gap in the odds between themselves and Portugal in midweek certainly doesn’t seem justified - priced as high as 6.0 to overcome the hosts - and in turn an outright price of 9.0 to win the tournament is somewhat appealing. Ultimately though it would be a huge shock if the Swiss emerged as champions this week, even if a semi-final victory isn’t too much of a stretch.