It may not have the fierce hatred of the late 90s and early 2000s, but Manchester United v Arsenal remains one of the most important fixtures in the Premier League season. We are only three games into the season, but already it feels like a key game for the visitors, having picked up just one point from their opening two league matches.
Arsenal’s record in recent meetings with United is poor, but they did win the previous meeting between the sides at the Emirates last season, courtesy of Aaron Ramsey’s goal. The Welshman was the key player that day, completing more passes than any other player (60) at a rate of 93%. He also completed the highest number of passes (90) in Arsenal’s midweek win over Udinese, and with Arsenal’s current midfield crisis, is perhaps the make-or-break player in this fixture.
With the absence of Alex Song and Emmanuel Frimpong through suspension, and Jack Wilshere through injury, Ramsey might have to play the deepest role in midfield. That is of particular interest in this fixture, because in the 1-0 win over United last season, Arsene Wenger chose to tilt his midfield triangle, playing Alex Song deeper than Ramsey and Jack Wilshere, with the Cameroon international practically man-marking Wayne Rooney. Song was superb, making the most tackles (6, out of 22 total for Arsenal) and the most interceptions (5, out of 20 total), which indicates both that Song will be a big miss, and that the use of a ‘sole’ holding player worked against Rooney in the hole.
Whether Wenger wants to do the same thing is uncertain, but if he does, Ramsey is probably not his man. There has been speculation that Johan Djourou could play in midfield – a role he says he prefers to his usual centre-back position – but this would depend on Arsenal having two fit centre-backs, which is not guaranteed. Francis Coquelin and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain also have a chance of making their debuts in midfield. With a weakened midfield zone and a nervous back four, Wenger might believe that attack is his best option, and a 4-4-2 is not unthinkable, though unlikely.
Sir Alex Ferguson doesn’t have such pressing selection issues, though he does have to make a decision about his formation. Having spent the last few years playing 4-5-1 against Arsenal with great success, Ferguson’s decision to play a 4-4-2 / 4-4-1-1 against Arsenal at the start of May backfired. Javier Hernandez played upfront, but only made seven passes and attempted no shots. Ferguson has prospered with a 4-4-2 so far this season, but might consider an additional midfield player to try to dominate possession. That said, Arsenal’s weakened midfield might mean he feels comfortable enough to use Tom Cleverley and Anderson together as a duo.
Possession will be an interesting factor in the game. Both sides have averaged 56% of the ball in their two games so far, although Arsenal actually ended up losing the possession battle against Liverpool after Frimpong’s dismissal. The sides seem to be moving in opposite directions in terms of their approach – having scored many goals through direct wing play and the pace of Hernandez last season, United now seem to going down the Barcelona route of hoarding the ball. On the other hand, having lost arguably their two best passers in Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas, Arsenal have utilised the pace of Theo Walcott and Gervinho (suspended from this game) down the flanks instead, perhaps returning to the counter-attacking style Wenger preferred in his early days at Arsenal.
United and Arsenal Attack Zones in 2011/12
If United do have the majority of possession, they must use the ball better than at the Emirates. In that game, their two highest passers were the centre-backs, Nemanja Vidic (52) and Rio Ferdinand (47), though both will probably be absent here. The signs from the game against Tottenham are more promising, because Rooney (54) saw more of the ball than any other United player. He has the third-highest average rating (8.46) this season so far, and is certainly United’s dangerman.
This is likely to be a game decided by overall strategy rather than particular battles across the pitch. Therefore, the two key questions are which side will dominate the ball, and how efficiently will their opponents counter-attack?
